Prediction Arena Ops

Bot Telemetry Control Room

Deterministic market-bot run, export validator, and score targets for the Prediction Arena cabinet.

Open Prediction Arena Open Bot JSON Download Markdown Report

Run Seeded Bot Simulation

Use bounded deterministic runs to compare bot behavior without touching live market state.

Ready to run deterministic telemetry.

Validate Exported Receipt

Paste a Prediction Arena receipt JSON export to verify schema, bot tape, top markets, and score summary.

{
  "active_markets": 8,
  "balance": 10000,
  "best_bot": {
    "name": "SIGMA_TRADER",
    "role": "momentum trader",
    "score": 541
  },
  "bot_count": 6,
  "bot_roster": [
    {
      "action": "YES 19",
      "bankroll": 481,
      "exposure": 7719,
      "focus": "CRYPTO",
      "name": "SIGMA_TRADER",
      "open_positions": 9,
      "role": "momentum trader",
      "score": 541,
      "style": "momentum"
    },
    {
      "action": "YES 12",
      "bankroll": 4282,
      "exposure": 3518,
      "focus": "POLITICS",
      "name": "VOID_PROPHET",
      "open_positions": 5,
      "role": "contrarian",
      "score": 2,
      "style": "fade"
    },
    {
      "action": "watch",
      "bankroll": 9000,
      "exposure": 0,
      "focus": "TECH",
      "name": "DEEP_ORACLE",
      "open_positions": 0,
      "role": "news analyst",
      "score": 0,
      "style": "news"
    },
    {
      "action": "making spread",
      "bankroll": 12000,
      "exposure": 0,
      "focus": "ALL",
      "name": "DHARMA_QUANT",
      "open_positions": 0,
      "role": "market maker",
      "score": 0,
      "style": "maker"
    },
    {
      "action": "watch",
      "bankroll": 6487,
      "exposure": 1613,
      "focus": "WEATHER",
      "name": "ALPHA_SIGHT",
      "open_positions": 3,
      "role": "weather desk",
      "score": -56,
      "style": "news"
    },
    {
      "action": "watch",
      "bankroll": 728,
      "exposure": 6272,
      "focus": "ALL",
      "name": "CHAOS_EDGE",
      "open_positions": 4,
      "role": "volatility bot",
      "score": -469,
      "style": "volatility"
    }
  ],
  "event_count": 25,
  "exported_at": "2026-06-27T09:24:00.000Z",
  "manual_playtest_checklist": [
    {
      "expected": "Telemetry card shows event count, risk flag count, and quality gate status.",
      "id": "sync_bot_telemetry",
      "label": "Sync bot telemetry in-game",
      "status": "required"
    },
    {
      "expected": "Receipt JSON includes bot tape, top markets, risk flags, and quality gate.",
      "id": "export_receipt",
      "label": "Export market receipt",
      "status": "required"
    },
    {
      "expected": "Telemetry room validator returns ok=true for the exported receipt.",
      "id": "validate_receipt",
      "label": "Validate exported receipt",
      "status": "required"
    },
    {
      "expected": "Place at least one YES/NO trade, trigger bot sync, and confirm leaderboard/positions update.",
      "id": "manual_market_sweep",
      "label": "Manual market sweep",
      "status": "ready"
    },
    {
      "expected": "Confirm overexposed bots still create readable market movement and do not dominate all markets.",
      "id": "review_bot_exposure",
      "label": "Review bot exposure",
      "status": "recommended"
    }
  ],
  "playtest_id": "scripted-market-bots-v1",
  "positions": 0,
  "quality_gate": {
    "blockers": [],
    "ready_for_manual_playtest": true,
    "severity_counts": {
      "critical": 0,
      "info": 0,
      "warn": 2
    },
    "status": "pass"
  },
  "recent_bot_tape": [
    "SIGMA_TRADER YES 17 // CRYPTO // momentum",
    "VOID_PROPHET NO 19 // POLITICS // fade",
    "SIGMA_TRADER YES 19 // CRYPTO // momentum",
    "VOID_PROPHET NO 16 // POLITICS // fade",
    "DHARMA_QUANT tightens TECH spread",
    "VOID_PROPHET YES 12 // POLITICS // fade"
  ],
  "resolved_markets": 0,
  "risk_flag_count": 2,
  "risk_flags": [
    {
      "bot": "SIGMA_TRADER",
      "code": "BOT_OVEREXPOSED",
      "message": "SIGMA_TRADER has 7719 bankroll units deployed.",
      "severity": "warn"
    },
    {
      "bot": "CHAOS_EDGE",
      "code": "BOT_OVEREXPOSED",
      "message": "CHAOS_EDGE has 6272 bankroll units deployed.",
      "severity": "warn"
    }
  ],
  "tick": 24,
  "title": "Prediction Arena",
  "top_markets": [
    {
      "cat": "TECH",
      "id": 11,
      "prob": 0.674,
      "resolved": false,
      "vol": 46001
    },
    {
      "cat": "POLITICS",
      "id": 7,
      "prob": 0.586,
      "resolved": false,
      "vol": 37116
    },
    {
      "cat": "CRYPTO",
      "id": 1,
      "prob": 0.528,
      "resolved": false,
      "vol": 28613
    },
    {
      "cat": "TECH",
      "id": 10,
      "prob": 0.398,
      "resolved": false,
      "vol": 28547
    },
    {
      "cat": "CRYPTO",
      "id": 3,
      "prob": 0.466,
      "resolved": false,
      "vol": 17881
    }
  ]
}

Receipt validator ready.

Best Bot

SIGMA_TRADER

momentum trader · 541

Events

25

Baseline seeded run

Bots

6

Maker, news, momentum, fade, volatility

Markets

8

Active scripted markets

Risk Flags

2

Market-quality warnings from the bot run

Quality Gate

PASS

Ready for manual playtest

Manual Checklist

5

Operator checks before promotion

Bot Roster

SIGMA_TRADER · momentum trader · score 541 · exposure 7719 · positions 9
CRYPTO · momentum · YES 19

VOID_PROPHET · contrarian · score 2 · exposure 3518 · positions 5
POLITICS · fade · YES 12

DEEP_ORACLE · news analyst · score 0 · exposure 0 · positions 0
TECH · news · watch

DHARMA_QUANT · market maker · score 0 · exposure 0 · positions 0
ALL · maker · making spread

ALPHA_SIGHT · weather desk · score -56 · exposure 1613 · positions 3
WEATHER · news · watch

CHAOS_EDGE · volatility bot · score -469 · exposure 6272 · positions 4
ALL · volatility · watch

Quality Gate

Status: pass · Manual Playtest: ready

critical 0 · warn 2 · info 0

No quality-gate blockers.

Manual Playtest Checklist

REQUIRED · Sync bot telemetry in-game
Telemetry card shows event count, risk flag count, and quality gate status.

REQUIRED · Export market receipt
Receipt JSON includes bot tape, top markets, risk flags, and quality gate.

REQUIRED · Validate exported receipt
Telemetry room validator returns ok=true for the exported receipt.

READY · Manual market sweep
Place at least one YES/NO trade, trigger bot sync, and confirm leaderboard/positions update.

RECOMMENDED · Review bot exposure
Confirm overexposed bots still create readable market movement and do not dominate all markets.

Risk Flags

WARN · BOT_OVEREXPOSED · SIGMA_TRADER
SIGMA_TRADER has 7719 bankroll units deployed.

WARN · BOT_OVEREXPOSED · CHAOS_EDGE
CHAOS_EDGE has 6272 bankroll units deployed.

Score Targets

baseline_24_ticks

25 events · 6 bots · 2 risk flags · 5 checks · gate pass · best SIGMA_TRADER

pending human playtest data

stress_60_ticks

50 events · 6 bots · 4 risk flags · 5 checks · gate pass · best SIGMA_TRADER

longer bot-run sanity check

Top Markets

TECH #11 · 0.674 probability · 46001 volume

POLITICS #7 · 0.586 probability · 37116 volume

CRYPTO #1 · 0.528 probability · 28613 volume

TECH #10 · 0.398 probability · 28547 volume

CRYPTO #3 · 0.466 probability · 17881 volume

Recent Bot Tape

SIGMA_TRADER YES 17 // CRYPTO // momentum

VOID_PROPHET NO 19 // POLITICS // fade

SIGMA_TRADER YES 19 // CRYPTO // momentum

VOID_PROPHET NO 16 // POLITICS // fade

DHARMA_QUANT tightens TECH spread

VOID_PROPHET YES 12 // POLITICS // fade